What has made this operation possible is amazing HUMINT with confirming SIGINT. Rejoicing in the impending fall of the mullahs is hardly the end, nor is it even the end of the beginning. Somebody needs to step in from the populace at large to take a leadership role and also not be seen by the Israelis as a danger or to Iranians as a stooge.
There are a number of Iranian democrats that participated in past “controlled “ elections that won, including the current President who is not a Mullah and if empowered by the Artesh, the secular Iranian Army, would be a transitional figure and already President. He could jail or exile the Mullah leadership and Israel might accept that as the best possible outcome. Then negotiations could take place to remove the nuclear capabilities and lift the sanctions. That is the best scenario I can think of that’s also realistic.
Agreed Professor. The US bombardment was the icing on cake mixed by Mossad and baked by the IDF. Hopefully it will have sealed the facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and cut the head off the IRGC serpent.
Now the politics and diplomacy has to finish the job. Does anyone have any information about how much of the Iranian government’s leadership has been affected? I should think that the Israeli networks inside Iran will have been grooming candidates to bring them up inside the Ministries to be able to step up as or to have the Ministers’ ears. That would be probably the best way to steer Iran towards a better government. The people needed would have to be like anti-Millers, anti-Voughts, and anti-Johnsons.
Now we need to see if Rubio, Netanyahu and Khamenei will negotiate in good faith. Will the mullahs relinquish control and their Gasht-e Ershad be willing to disband, and how would they be controlled or kept busy after? Syria is a good example of how hard it will be to form new effective governments with many extremists in management roles, with many axes to grind.
What always saddened me about the Iraq occupation was that the State Department went in with a token technical team (5 engineers and some interns) to assess and then help rebuild. Germany send in several thousand engineers to assess East Germany and help the West German government set goals and priorities for reunification. Nearly 36 years later, you know where ‘East Germany’ was when you drive through. It is an enormous task to separate the existing administration from the power brokers, and to separate the mullahs from power will be as difficult as de-Nazifying Germany or de-Bathe-fying Iraq. Iran will need help if sanctions are lifted, to keep the corruption levels down as the people and economy wake up.
Am I being pessimistic to think that the US brain trusts will follow ideology before practical idealism? We know what the peoples in Tehran, Gaza, Beruit and Damascus all want: peace and quiet in which they can raise food, families and just live/be left alone.
Given the current political posturing and climate, will that be allowed?
I know with 3 US Navy carrier groups in the region, it would be all to easy for some fanatics to try and deliver a parting shot to the eye, and not be content to just lob a few missiles at the bases in Qatar and Iraq.
Let’s hope for once that the adults in the situation room are listened to and their advice is heeded.
This may be a dumb question, but what about Trump getting rid of all of his own top military? How do you think that affects our ability to carry out any sort of war?
I think it’s a problem. But the U.S. military leadership just carried out a magnificent feat of arms. So it doesn’t appear to have affected performances.
What has made this operation possible is amazing HUMINT with confirming SIGINT. Rejoicing in the impending fall of the mullahs is hardly the end, nor is it even the end of the beginning. Somebody needs to step in from the populace at large to take a leadership role and also not be seen by the Israelis as a danger or to Iranians as a stooge.
There are a number of Iranian democrats that participated in past “controlled “ elections that won, including the current President who is not a Mullah and if empowered by the Artesh, the secular Iranian Army, would be a transitional figure and already President. He could jail or exile the Mullah leadership and Israel might accept that as the best possible outcome. Then negotiations could take place to remove the nuclear capabilities and lift the sanctions. That is the best scenario I can think of that’s also realistic.
To continue, we must learn the lessons of the past. 1953 and 1979-80 loom large in those mistakes.
Agreed Professor. The US bombardment was the icing on cake mixed by Mossad and baked by the IDF. Hopefully it will have sealed the facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and cut the head off the IRGC serpent.
Now the politics and diplomacy has to finish the job. Does anyone have any information about how much of the Iranian government’s leadership has been affected? I should think that the Israeli networks inside Iran will have been grooming candidates to bring them up inside the Ministries to be able to step up as or to have the Ministers’ ears. That would be probably the best way to steer Iran towards a better government. The people needed would have to be like anti-Millers, anti-Voughts, and anti-Johnsons.
Now we need to see if Rubio, Netanyahu and Khamenei will negotiate in good faith. Will the mullahs relinquish control and their Gasht-e Ershad be willing to disband, and how would they be controlled or kept busy after? Syria is a good example of how hard it will be to form new effective governments with many extremists in management roles, with many axes to grind.
What always saddened me about the Iraq occupation was that the State Department went in with a token technical team (5 engineers and some interns) to assess and then help rebuild. Germany send in several thousand engineers to assess East Germany and help the West German government set goals and priorities for reunification. Nearly 36 years later, you know where ‘East Germany’ was when you drive through. It is an enormous task to separate the existing administration from the power brokers, and to separate the mullahs from power will be as difficult as de-Nazifying Germany or de-Bathe-fying Iraq. Iran will need help if sanctions are lifted, to keep the corruption levels down as the people and economy wake up.
Am I being pessimistic to think that the US brain trusts will follow ideology before practical idealism? We know what the peoples in Tehran, Gaza, Beruit and Damascus all want: peace and quiet in which they can raise food, families and just live/be left alone.
Given the current political posturing and climate, will that be allowed?
I know with 3 US Navy carrier groups in the region, it would be all to easy for some fanatics to try and deliver a parting shot to the eye, and not be content to just lob a few missiles at the bases in Qatar and Iraq.
Let’s hope for once that the adults in the situation room are listened to and their advice is heeded.
May heads as wise as yours be brought into positions of leadership in tilling this soil!
This may be a dumb question, but what about Trump getting rid of all of his own top military? How do you think that affects our ability to carry out any sort of war?
I think it’s a problem. But the U.S. military leadership just carried out a magnificent feat of arms. So it doesn’t appear to have affected performances.
I am now at that thousand yard stare…I’m all out of fucks to give…