THE AYATOLLAH AND ISRAEL ARE IN A FIGHT TO THE DEATH; A SO-CALLED “CEASEFIRE” WILL NOT STOP IT!
ISRAEL CANNOT AFFORD TO LET THE MULLAH REGIME SURVIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY
A. THE FATE OF NAPOLEON HAUNTS ISRAEL
Israel has an unleashed viper in its bedroom; it must kill it before, over time, it is killed by the viper either with dirty nukes or some equivalent weapons of mass destruction. The viper in this analogy is not the Iranian people but the Ayatollah and his Mullah dictatorship. And this mornings reporting indicate that despite talk of a ceasefire, the conflict will continue in insidious and devilish forms, perplexing to some, but clear to others.
What has become clear is that Israel had adopted Alexander the Great’s tactic to defeat the Persian King Darius III and the larger Persian Army at Gaugamela in 331 BC. Alexander swept around the Persian left flank with his cavalry, and charged straight at Darius in his chariot, surrounded by his generals and imperial guard. As Alexander closed in they scattered, with Darius swiftly leaving the field accompanied by his Imperial Guard. His body was later found by a roadside. He either committed suicide or was killed by his guards who later sought Alexander’s favor. Historians disagree on exactly what happened, but Alexander had the guards executed for disloyalty to their King. Meanwhile the Persian Army, seeing their high command fleeing, surrendered.
It’s Napoleon’s maxim in action: “In war the moral is to the physical as three to one.” It states the classic truth in battle: the psychological state of the soldiers is much more powerful than their material resources. It’s human nature: “Why should I stand here and die while my leaders run to safety.”
Napoleon recognized that undermining the enemy’s morale and stimulating the spirit of his own troops, though outnumbered, was the key to victory. And he practiced it repeatedly in his twelve years as hegemon of Europe and Emperor of the French from 1803 to 1815.
But Napoleon never focused on what was required for victory: the crux of the matter was the destruction of the aristocratic imperial dynasties of Austria, Prussia and Russia; his crucial mistake: he negotiated peace treaties and left the monarchs in place.
Napoleon, after defeating Austria in three battles from 1805 to the battle of Wagram in 1809, he negotiated peace and married the Austrian Emperor’s teenage daughter. He should have brought the Austrian Emperor in chains to Paris and publicly guillotined him; the same fate as the French King, Louis XVI. Instead he allowed the imperial dynasties to outlive him and eventually destroy him. I suspect the Israelis know their Napoleonic history and will not repeat it.
B. A RECENT STARTLING EVENT: ISRAEL CELL CALL GIVES AN IRGC GENERAL 12 HOURS TO LEAVE IRAN OR FACE ASSASSINATION.
The General is negotiating….as shown by the Washington Post in a published recorded cell call.
This morning’s Washington Post reports a subtle, devilishly clever campaign to assassinate not just a few Generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (“IRGC”) in the Iranian High Command, but every last one of them. To date NINE IRGC Commanders, the entire top command of the IRGC, including the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces have been “eliminated”.
As a comparison, it is as though Iranian assassins killed the the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and every other Service Chief, including the Commandant of the Marine Corps, killing each of them in their homes with precision guided drones. And then killing the Combatant Commander of Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, with a missile blowing up his residence at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa Florida. Following those audacious attacks it’s as though the Iranians were to place calls to the cell phones of their American successors, threatening them with a similar fate unless they collect their children and their wives and defect to Canada.
Normally one or two assassinations would only enrage a military high command; however eliminating the entire high command in a matter of days is unprecedented. It tends to focus the remaining IRGC generals on their own mortality. Its effect has been devastating, according to the Post: the Ayatollah is having a hard time talking other Generals into succeeding the assassinated Generals.
Specifically this is what has happened: according to the Post, an audio they exclusively obtained recorded a warning to a top Iranian General close to the Mullah leadership. The text follows:
“You have 12 hours to escape with your wife and child, otherwise you are on our list. We are closer to you than your own neck vein. Send a video saying you are disassociating from the Iranian government.” The General asked how to send it and the operative said: “I will send you a Telegram ID.”. The General replied “Send it”.
The Post went one to report that an Israeli official familiar with the Mossad cell phone operation said “The second - tier leadership that is suppose to inherit the positions and now fill the places of those who have been eliminated, they are terrified”. Israeli official said that some senior figures received a warning letter under the door, some received a phone call directly and others were contacted via their spouses. They fully understand that they are transparent and known to us and that our intelligence penetration is 100%. Some of the senior Iranian officials have been contacted several times, resulting in a dialogue between them and Israeli intelligence. “Ayatollah Khamenei is facing serious difficulties to nominate successors for the positions of officials that were eliminated in the operation.”
C. ISRAEL HAS THE MULLAHS IN A BUNKER. IT IS MOVING IN FOR THE KILL
Like Alexander the Great did to King Darius III, chasing him off the field of battle, the Israeli High Command has chased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into a bunker. According to legacy media he has been cut off from all electronic communications to prevent the Israelis tracing his location and eliminating him. He must lead from an isolated bunker communicating by written messages, carried by hand to the recipients. His three most senior military advisors were killed in one night, another six were killed in the last few days. He has named their replacements, however no professional military officers appear willing to accept the positions. Many are intimidated by Israeli threats and have not been heard from in public, at least not in the past 24 hours.
Dictators cannot run a war in isolation; the Mullah dictatorship appears willing to talk if Israel would cease its attacks. As of this evening there is no indication that Israel is willing to do so. And even if Israel did enter into a ceasefire, thar would not preclude their covert operations to eliminate the Mullah dictatorship and its henchmen.
Tonight Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that “we are close to achieving our goals.” Really! I bet you are Bibi.
A SINCERE APPRECIATION AND AN UPDATE 🙏
In the last 24 hours nearly 20 new paid subscribers have come aboard! I am very grateful. It’s been a wild week, and the week is just beginning. I am very encouraged and I hope you, my dear readers, are satisfied with the up to date analysis and original insights, based on history, you can only obtain in this Seminar. It’s a full time job, and I love it but I remain in need of support and assistance to keep the quality high and my stress reasonably low. If you enjoy these Seminars and are not yet a paid subscriber, please consider making a purchase. It keeps the lights on, the belly full and the blood pressure low. I would very much appreciate it.
We have three affordable plans:
$7 monthly
$70 yearly
$105 For a Founding Subscription entitling the purchaser to a beautiful West Point Black Knight lapel pin, the logo of this Seminar and the West Point athletic teams.
THESE ARE DIFFICULT TIMES, STAY SAFE AND AS EDWARD R. MORROW TOLD HIS LISTENERS FROM A LONDON AT WAR:
GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK 🍀 ☘️
What has made this operation possible is amazing HUMINT with confirming SIGINT. Rejoicing in the impending fall of the mullahs is hardly the end, nor is it even the end of the beginning. Somebody needs to step in from the populace at large to take a leadership role and also not be seen by the Israelis as a danger or to Iranians as a stooge.
Agreed Professor. The US bombardment was the icing on cake mixed by Mossad and baked by the IDF. Hopefully it will have sealed the facilities at Isfahan, Fordow and Natanz, and cut the head off the IRGC serpent.
Now the politics and diplomacy has to finish the job. Does anyone have any information about how much of the Iranian government’s leadership has been affected? I should think that the Israeli networks inside Iran will have been grooming candidates to bring them up inside the Ministries to be able to step up as or to have the Ministers’ ears. That would be probably the best way to steer Iran towards a better government. The people needed would have to be like anti-Millers, anti-Voughts, and anti-Johnsons.
Now we need to see if Rubio, Netanyahu and Khamenei will negotiate in good faith. Will the mullahs relinquish control and their Gasht-e Ershad be willing to disband, and how would they be controlled or kept busy after? Syria is a good example of how hard it will be to form new effective governments with many extremists in management roles, with many axes to grind.
What always saddened me about the Iraq occupation was that the State Department went in with a token technical team (5 engineers and some interns) to assess and then help rebuild. Germany send in several thousand engineers to assess East Germany and help the West German government set goals and priorities for reunification. Nearly 36 years later, you know where ‘East Germany’ was when you drive through. It is an enormous task to separate the existing administration from the power brokers, and to separate the mullahs from power will be as difficult as de-Nazifying Germany or de-Bathe-fying Iraq. Iran will need help if sanctions are lifted, to keep the corruption levels down as the people and economy wake up.
Am I being pessimistic to think that the US brain trusts will follow ideology before practical idealism? We know what the peoples in Tehran, Gaza, Beruit and Damascus all want: peace and quiet in which they can raise food, families and just live/be left alone.
Given the current political posturing and climate, will that be allowed?
I know with 3 US Navy carrier groups in the region, it would be all to easy for some fanatics to try and deliver a parting shot to the eye, and not be content to just lob a few missiles at the bases in Qatar and Iraq.
Let’s hope for once that the adults in the situation room are listened to and their advice is heeded.