Part IV: TRUMP IS THE “X FACTOR” IN THE FATE OF A CHINESE TAIWAN INVASION FLEET; JUST LOOK AT THE PAST
A. INTRODUCTION: THE “X FACTOR”
Toward the end of his 2024 Presidential campaign, Donald Trump spoke quietly to his billionaire supporters in two very secret meetings, one in a bucolic beach front Florida mansion, the other in a plush Upper Eastside Manhattan Townhouse. Trump was impressing his listeners on how he will get Putin and Xi Jinping to comply with his demands. He was taped.
The tapes were obtained by the authors of a new book “2024” by Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf; according to CNN, who obtained copies of the tapes, they reveal:
In his first term Trump told Putin that he would “bomb the shit out of Moscow” if he went into Ukraine. Putin, according to Trump, went silent and then said “I don’t believe you.” Trump noted “He believed”.
Putin didn’t invade Ukraine while Trump was President. Trump then related a similar threat to China’s President Xi Jinping if he invaded Taiwan.
“I told him the U.S. would bomb Beijing in response.” Xi, according to Trump, said he “was crazy”, but Trump noted: “We never had a problem”.
Now what are we to make of these astounding, preposterous threats ? A lot. Based on the “2024” audio tapes Trump is an “X” factor, a definite wild card, for Xi Jinping and Putin. That doesn’t mean they believe him; but can they discount his crazy threat ? As we know from prior Seminars, destroying the enemy’s high command in the opening moves of war is hitting Colonel Warden’s “bullseye”, leaving the enemy’s armed forces leaderless. It is particularly devastating to an authoritarian regime. History says they would be unwise to discount anything Trump says.
Presidential ego, emotions and fury have occurred before in the run up to wars and battles. If one looks for similar Presidential decision making, one need look no further than the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo, or George H.W. Bush’s attack on Saddam Hussein’s Bagdad and George W. Bush ordering the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan after the Twin Towers attack on 9/11. None of these Presidential decisions were made after extensive war planning, analyzing in detail the costs vs benefits of various options. No, the decisions were made in fits of emotion and in some cases fury. The detailed war plans came after the decision was made, not before.
And that makes Trump a highly unpredictable, wild card, as Commander in Chief. To glimpse the future, look at the past. In this Seminar we will look at what happened in 1942, after Pearl Harbor. It’s a helpful case study of human beings, under intense pressure, making moves and counter moves to see what could happen should China blockade or invade Taiwan. After Pearl Harbor President Franklin D Roosevelt launched immediate retaliation with a preposterous Jerry-rigged plan. Americans are dangerous when emotionally aroused, their egos bruised, and the means at hand to retaliate. For Americans, revenge is not best served cold, but pipping hot.
B. PRESIDENTIAL FURY: THE DOOLITTLE RAID
I. The Unexpected
1.) The Fury
Contrary to the dreary results of so-called “war games” constantly played by professionals moving units around a map and umpires ruling on strategic and tactical successes and failures, real war is full of surprises; with the unexpected occurring more often than not. Hence, while war games provide data, they should not be taken too seriously. The enemy, as General David Petraeus is wont to say, has a vote too; a big one.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s personal fury over Pearl Harbor directly led to the preposterous, Jerry-rigged Doolittle Raid, which led to the Battle of Midway, the battle that Japanese historians believe doomed Japan. It is a perfect example of THE X FACTOR in war. A totally unexpected, irrational move that determines the fate of nations.
The Dolittle Raid itself was not a Pentagon Staff plan. In fact the military discouraged it. The Raid was demanded by the Commander in Chief, President Franklin D. Rosevelt, who, as Assistant Secretary of the Navy in the First World War, had been the operational day to day head of the U.S. Navy. Right after Pearl Harbor he banged his desk in fury and demanded that his Chiefs of Staffs provide a plan to retaliate against Japan immediately! It was necessary to revive American sprit and morale after Pearl Harbor. Unlike the professional military, he understood his countrymen’s lust for vengeance against Japan and its Emperor after the destruction of the Fleet at Pearl Harbor. Something had to be done immediately to satiate that lust and restore the country’s confidence in its national leaders.
2.) The Jerry-Rigged Plan
His military got to work and came up with a “long shot” hybrid plan using long range Army Bombers launched from aircraft carriers. The plan had to use long range Army bombers to keep the American carriers as far away from Japan’s coast as possible to prevent being discovered too early and being destroyed by the Imperial Japanese Navy (I.J. N.). The Military Staff argued that the hybrid plan, while possible, made no strategic or tactical sense. But it was the best they could do, on short notice, after the losses sustained at Pearl Harbor.
Twenty Army Air Corps B-25 medium, land based bombers with Army Air Corps crews, trained by naval aviators to takeoff off from an aircraft carrier at sea, which had never been done before, would bomb Tokyo and other major Japanese cities.
It could only be done successfully if the carriers could get within 500 miles of Tokyo undetected; a range that had the planes on a one way mission. It was high risk and if discovered early the Task Force could be sunk by Japanese land based bombers or chased down by the Japanese Fleet The prospects of the Raid doing significant damage to critical war assets, factories, command and control centers, warships etc. was minimal to the point of non existent. When the President was briefed on their “impractical” plan he roared with laughter and was DEEELIGHTED ! A favorite expletive of his cousin President Theadore Rosevelt.
3.) Admiral Yamamoto’s Precautions
Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, the Commander of the Combined Fleet and the author of the brilliant Pearl Harbor Attack, did in fact suspect some sort of response from U.S. Pacific Fleet; just the wrong one. The Admiral thought that with a 250 mile+- lethal range, carrier launched bombers would have to approach within at least 300 miles of the Japanese coast before launching their planes . Yamamoto placed a picket line of small fishing boats, manned by naval personnel, at a point 750 miles east of Tokyo to give plenty of advance warning of approaching American Carriers. Combined Fleet aircraft carriers and battleships could be sent to intercept the American carriers in plenty of time before they came within the anticipated striking distance, 250-300 miles east of Tokyo.
As the Japanese naval officers Fuchida and Okumiya note in their 1955 work on the Midway battle; all was well from a war planner’s point of view, if the Yankees tried it, they would be identified early and sunk before getting within striking distance of Tokyo.
4.) The Raid Approaches Tokyo
Yamamoto suspected that U.S. aircraft carriers may respond targeting Tokyo. He laid a trap for the U.S. Carrier Task Force; but it was beyond his imagination what the Doolittle Raid pulled off. He was well aware of the difficulties Doolittle faced. Coming too close risked early detection and possible annihilation. Launching further away was a seeming impossibility. So he assumed Doolittle would approach and launch at night from about 250 miles east of Tokyo. And he prepared to meet and sink the carriers carrying the attacking planes before they could launch. The Japanese were well trained for night Fleet engagements.
And so as the Doolittle Carrier Task Force approached, it was spotted about 600 miles off the coast, by Yamamoto’s picket line.
COMING UP:
DOOLITTLE BOMBS TOKYO; YAMAMOTO CHARGES EASTWARD INTO AN AMBUSH; HE IS DEFEATED IN FIVE MINUTES OF HELL OFF MIDWAY; HE DOOMS HIS DECAPITATED FRAGILE FLEET AND JAPAN’S EMPIRE
AN UPDATE; AN APPRECIATION AND A REQUEST😎
We are slowly moving forward; paid subscribers are now at 1072 out of 11,071 total subscribers. We are certainly keeping our current paid subscribers satisfied with the posts; now how to convince the free subscribers to upgrade. These Seminars have a certain suspense to them, as the comments show. A paywall well into the text could encourage upgrades, it could also piss readers off. I’m not famous enough to take the risk. However, my current paid subscribers could recommend the West Point History Professor to their family, friends and colleagues; also Re Stacking compelling posts would help a lot. Substack support told me that they only feature on the SubStack app. those posts that immediately take off with new paid subscribers, so quick action is essential, the SubStack app is the way most new readers discover a SubStack author, particularly one who is not famous. I would definitely appreciate any help my lovely readers could give me to increase my paid subscribers. The paid subscriber plateau is, I’m told, difficult to break. But with your help, as Obama would say, YES WE CAN!
The current series on the prospects for a Chinese “Fragile Fleet” engaging in a blockade or invasion of Taiwan, has turned out to be more complex than originally thought. New events bearing on this subject keep occurring, like the raid on Fordo, Iran and, just this week, the disclosure of tapes of Trump’s secret meetings indicating he would bomb Beijing if the People’s Liberation Army Navy invaded Taiwan. Current events and developing stories impact the Taiwan and Western Pacific picture. My Seminars are quick to adapt and analyze new public information. I don’t apologize for the increasing length of the series, I just wanted to let you know my reasons for it.
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A HEARTY GOOD AFTERNOON AND GOOD LUCK 🍀 😎 WE ALL NEED A LITTLE OLD FASHIONED IRISH LUCK TO KEEP THE DEVIL AWAY!
Prof. Goggin, as I read your post “The X Factor Fate” it felt like I was watching a movie on this event of history. Thank you for your seminars and your quality writing. These seminars are something to read and learn about.
Prof. In your personal opinion, do you think the White House would bomb/fight China if they would invade Taiwan??
I can already see a few challenges with sending in B2s to Beijing. If a US battle plan included bombing the Forbidden City, that would likely act as a ‘Pearl Harbor’ for the Chinese. I’ve had the good fortune to walk through Tiananmin Square in 2013, and through the Forbidden City. Other than the CCP’s HQ, there are only cultural buildings, not worth destroying. It would be the same as destroying the Lincoln Memorial, and the Smithsonian.
Now hitting the the state television broadcast studios, like the Needle in Shanghai, that would be a shock and awe moment when it came down. It is an enourmous structure. And there are only office buildings on the Pudong side of the river.
As for the X Factor, we have a coward acting as a Mafia tough guy. (Sound and fury signifying nothing?) Based on previous behaviour, Trump and his sycophants would talk a good game, but chicken out at the end. And most assuredly the Chinese have his full measure.
This then comes down to brinksmanship. The US Navy is used to having things mostly go their way, with only a few incidents like the USS Cole showing brief lapses in rigour. So the PLAN will be counting heavily on the CIC to back down when pressed. And based on the thuggishness of Trump foreign policy, this is most likely what he will do. I do not see him risking B2’s against an ‘strong’ opponent with a nuclear arsenal. Iran was an ‘easy mark’.
And considering Trump’s and his advisers’ attitude towards former allies, Taiwan may be on their own against the PLAN. The only scenario I can see where diplomacy would work, would be if Taiwan just gave up.
I just have one question: does anyone know if the US Pacific Command have a telephone they can call at the PLAN like they do with Russia? If things get tense, I would hope that cooler minds would have the ability to speak and avoid misunderstandings.